A few months ago I wrote an article titled "Market Forecast: Beware of investors." Spoke of how economists and stock market gurus seems to be systematically wrong, and I have many examples of this point. On January 14, 2008 edition of the figures Direxion Funds, has published a report that shows how meteorologists last year. The year 2007 seems to be another year, but the same story. One thing that can take the consistency question why meteorologistsThey are wrong!
* The median forecast of events in January 1, 2007 from 58 Wall Street analysts to cut 10-year Treasury year-end 2007 was 4.88%, an increase of 0.17% compared with 4.17 % compared to December 31, 2006. Instead of December 31, 2007 has increased the power more than a year, but fell to 4.02% (Source: BusinessWeek).
* 82% of the fund manager, said at the end of December 2006, the rates of long-term rates of interest of the United States would be "no change orabout 12 months. "The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury was" not stable or increasing, but decreased from 4.81% to 4.45% in calendar year 2007 (Source: Merrill Lynch).
* 56 economists in mid-January 2007 survey respondents expect oil prices to average $ 58 per barrel in Q4 of 2007, less than $ 3 a barrel to $ 61.05 price of 12.31 / 06. However, the price of oil has not decreased, but increased by 57% in 2007 and closed last year at $ 95.98 (per barrel Source:U.S. Today).
* The S & P 500 rose by 9.2% pa (total return), Friday, July 20th, 2007, graduated in 1534. The title over the weekend in Barron's said, "we still have time to buy" expected to increase by 6% in 1625, December 31, 2007. In contrast, the index of the shares was down 4.3% at end from 2007 to 1468 the S & P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 securities in general, as broadly representative of the stock market in the United States (source: Barron's).
* As of Labor Day Monday, the last year(September 3, 2007), there were only four months remaining for the calendar year. The S & P 500 had closed last week in the 1474 Barron's equity strategists eighty known for predicting the S & P 500 should be the end of the calendar. Seven of the eight saw a rising stock market by the end of the year with a meteorologist at December 31, 2007 price of the 1700 type. The S & P 500 in reality the end of 1468 (Source: Barron's).
Moreover, from a long-term historical perspective, here are someinteresting "market expectations" trivia. Even with the kind permission of Direxion from "publication.
* The morning of the day took 19, 1987, the day on which trading of a bigger loss percentage of days in the history of S & P 500, the Wall Street Journal published an editorial with the subtitle "Some are increased the conviction temporary slowdown. " The S & P 500 was down 20.5% for the day (Source: Wall Street Journal).
* On August 13, 1979 BusinessWeek has done aCover story titled "The Death of shares." The S & P 500 has risen by 107 on August 13, 1979 The S & P 500 has closed the calendar year (2007 to rise to 1468: BusinessWeek). Apparently, the stocks are not dead ...
* With the close of business on Wednesday, October 9th, 2002, the S & P 500 down the 777 before the bull, who won the start and reached 101% in 1565, 9 October 2007, just five days after the day market down. The owner of the business section of USA Today, ThursdayTomorrow, October 10, 2002 was "If the land, No End in Sight" (source: BBC News).
The moral of this story is that the forecasts by a discussion and curiosities. To use not to try to make money.